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Raila edges past Ruto in latest opinion poll

Azimio la Umoja One Kenya Coalition presidential flag bearer Raila Odinga has for the first time overtaken Deputy President William Ruto in the presidential popularity contest, three months to the General election.

This is according to a poll released by Trends for Insights Africa (Tifa). The poll sampled 1,719 respondents from across the country, who were interviewed through phone in a poll TIFA said it funded on its own.

According to the polls, Mr Odinga, who two days ago picked Narc Kenya leader Martha Karua as his running mate, would receive 39 per cent of all votes cast if elections were held today with Ruto coming second with 35 per cent.

Tifa links Odinga’s increased popularity to his decision to pick Karua as his running mate.

Dr Ruto’s current tally of 35 per cent is a drop from the 38 per cent in November 2021 and February 2022, as well as the 39 per cent in April this year.

For Mr Odinga, it is a steady rise from the 23 per cent in November 2021, 27 per cent in February 2022, and 32 per cent in April, to his current 39 per cent.

However, neither Ruto nor Odinga would not attain the required threshold of 50 per cent plus one to win the elections outright, meaning the contest could be settled in round two.

Meanwhile, Wiper party leader Kalonzo Musyoka, who has since ditched Azimio, is third in the poll with a lowly two per cent.

The polls shows that the Azimio pair leading in Lower Eastern, Coast, Nairobi, Nyanza and Western with the Ruto and his running mate Rigathe Gachagua pairing enjoying more support from Central Rift, Mt Kenya, Northern and South Rift.

Mr Odinga’s popularity had grown in seven regions out of nine. Comparing data from Tifa’s poll survey in April, Odinga’s popularity in Nyanza and Coast had grown at 13 per cent, Western by 12 per cent, Nairobi by nine per cent, Mt Kenya by six per cent, Lower Eastern by five per cent, Northern by one per cent and Central Rift by nine per cent.

On the other hand, Ruto’s popularity had declined in six regions with only South Rift having a major gain of 26 per cent. His popularity has also increased by one per cent in Coast and nine per cent in Northern.

In Central Rift, Ruto’s popularity has declined by 11 per cent, Lower Eastern by five per cent, Mt Kenya by seven per cent, Nairobi by six per cent, Nyanza by 10 per cent and Western by three per cent.

Last week, a poll conducted by Infotrak Research and Consulting and commissioned by the Nation Media Group, indicated that Ruto and Odinga are tied in dead heat with each enjoying a popularity of 42 per cent.

The poll also indicated that Ruto’s popularity had grown by seven per cent in the last two months as compared to Odinga’s at six per cent.