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TIFA: UDA maintains popularity in Rift Valley, Central

By Mercy Simiyu September 21st, 2023 2 min read

The United Democratic Alliance (UDA) has maintained its status as the most popular political party in Kenya, with its level of popularity nearly double that of the opposition’s Orange Democratic Movement (ODM).

As per a recent survey commissioned by Trends and Insights Africa (TIFA), UDA, which is the ruling party, leads the popularity charts with a commanding 35% rating of the surveyed support.

ODM is second with 16%.

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The poll further highlights challenges faced by other political parties such as Jubilee, once a dominant force in Kenyan politics, which now commands a mere 2% of the support, while Wiper, a political outfit associated with former vice president Kalonzo Musyoka,  has a 3% following countrywide.

TIFA says the findings are from a survey that encompassed 1007 people countrywide conducted between September 8 to September 10, 2023.

The survey further shows UDA’s stronghold is concentrated in the Central Rift and Mt. Kenya regions, reflecting the resounding success the party enjoyed in those areas during the 2022 presidential elections.

“UDA is strongest in Central Rift and Mt. Kenya, a clear reflection of last year’s election results in those areas. Further, the results from Northern are perhaps more significant, just in late July last year TIFA found that ODM and Jubilee combined were far more popular than UDA (51% vs. 31%), yet now UDA is twice as popular as ODM there, with Jubilee’s support minimal. As for ODM, aside from Nyanza and South Rift, in the other four zones where it remains the most popular party, UDA is ‘nipping at its heels’,” the survey stated.

Further, a consistent trend of declining support can be observed in both the ruling party and the primary opposition party, extending to the two main coalitions as well. According to the survey, over the past three months, Kenya Kwanza has experienced a more significant loss of support compared to Azimio la Umoja, with Kenya Kwanza’s support dropping from 49 percent to 35percent, a decline of 14 percent, whereas Azimio la Umoja’s support decreased from 40 percent to 28 percent, marking a 12 percent reduction in its support base.

“These declines are reflected in the substantial increase in the proportion expressing support for neither coalition, nearly tripling since March (from 13 percent to 36 percent),” Read the survey.